By Jim Souhan

One of the most fascinating aspects of being a local writer is observing the national media.

We know what resonates nationally: Big names, speculation, and easy-to-comprehend drama.

What’s been the dominant storyline of the Vikings’ offseason?

J.J. McCarthy’s fall from grace.

Why are the Vikings being overlooked by the national media?

J.J. McCarthy’s fall from grace.

Here’s what’s interesting: McCarthy’s fall from grace means that his frustrating saga may have nothing to do with how this team performs this season.

I think the McCarthy saga – in which he sabotaged a promising career by begging out of his last regular-season game, and then his last preseason game because of minor injuries, and failing to put up a good fight in his pretend duel with Kyler Murray – has distracted too many people from legitimate reasons for optimism.

Last year the Vikings had just about everything go wrong, including everything they tried at the quarterback position.

McCarthy was terrible early. Carson Wentz was serviceable until he got hurt. Max Brosmer was not ready to play in the NFL. Cumulatively, the Vikings were terrible at the quarterback position relative to the rest of the league, and certainly relative to the rest of the NFC North.

Murray possesses worrisome flaws. He’s also, at his worst, far better than any of the Vikings’ quarterbacks were last year

Murray is a more accurate passer than all three. He’s a better runner and athlete than all three.

He’s a better deep thrower than all three.

What we should remember is that despite all of their problems, the Vikings won nine games last year, and would have won 10 and swept the Bears had they tackled Devin Duvernay on a kickoff return in U.S. Bank Stadium.

Had Murray played for the Vikings last year, they probably would have won 11 or 12 games.

That’s why I’m picking them to win 12 this year.

I’m not exactly standing on an island when it comes to that prediction.

Jon Krawczynski, my partner on the Viking Update podcast, picked the Vikings to win 11, Jeff Diamond, the former Vikings GM and host of “Jeff Diamond’s Vikings & NFL Insider’’ at Talknorth.com, picked the Vikings to win 12.

Injuries and other forms of bad luck can derail any team, but the Vikings are well-coached, and I expect Kevin O’Connell to unveil an offense we haven’t seen from him before as he seeks to emphasize Murray’s strengths.

-The hot listen: Check out The Jon Krawczynski Show to hear us wondering why everybody nationally seems down on Kuminga, and why they’re wrong.

-The hot rec: Just re-watched The Black Godfather on Netflix. Fascinating story about one of the most influential Americans of our time, someone who helped elevate the careers of everyone from Bill Withers to Barack Obama.

-Up next: More Vikings analysis.

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